Monday Morning Real Estate Mojo

Sep 7

9 min read

September 7, 2026

Edition #205

Mojo defined

1. A term used for self-confidence, self-assuredness.

2. The basis for belief in ones self in a situation.

3. Efficacy to bolster confidence.

4. Ability to bounce back.

There has been so much misinformation about the real estate market in the national media lately...our goal is always to provide our clients with accurate, real time market data.

Phoenix Housing Market: Early Signs of Buyers Returning

The Greater Phoenix housing market is sending some mixed signals as we head into September, but there are a few encouraging signs beginning to emerge.

Last month, the market looked stronger when we looked backward at completed home sales, while the numbers that typically tell us what may happen next were weakening. This month, we're seeing almost the exact opposite.

More homes are now pending or under contract than at this time last year, suggesting that buyers may be starting to return to the market a little earlier than we normally see heading into the fall. However, that renewed activity hasn't made its way into closed sales yet.

Inventory Is Slowly Coming Down

One of the more positive developments for homeowners is that the number of homes available for sale continues to decline.

Active inventory fell approximately 1.6% during the past month, with about 23,674 homes currently available for sale across the ARMLS market.

Overall inventory is essentially unchanged from this time last year. That's important because earlier this year, rising inventory was giving buyers considerably more leverage and putting additional pressure on sellers.

We are also seeing fewer sellers give up and take their homes off the market. The percentage of listings successfully resulting in a sale improved from about 60% in July to nearly 65% in August.

In other words, the market remains challenging for sellers, but conditions have improved somewhat from earlier this summer.

Buyers Are Showing Interest — But Sales Remain Slow

Completed home sales were weaker in August.

After accounting for the number of business days in the month, sales activity declined approximately 9% from July. Compared with August of last year, home sales were down roughly 6%.

That may sound contradictory when we're also seeing more homes under contract, but there's an important distinction.

Closed sales tell us where the market has been. Homes going under contract give us a better indication of where it may be headed.

The recent increase in pending and under-contract homes suggests buyers are becoming somewhat more active. If that trend continues, we should begin seeing those contracts turn into closed sales later this fall.

Home Prices Have Softened

Home prices continue to show some weakness.

The Valley's median sales price fell 1.4% during August to $445,500. Compared with August of last year, the median price is still slightly higher, but only by about 0.7%.

The average price per square foot also declined during August, falling about 1.9% to $291.53 per square foot, although it remains higher than a year ago.

Sellers are currently receiving approximately 97.2% of their asking price on average.

This doesn't mean every home is losing value. Real estate remains extremely local, and conditions can vary significantly depending on the city, neighborhood, price range and condition of the property. But across the broader market, buyers currently have more negotiating power than they did during the highly competitive markets of the past several years.

What Does This Mean for Sellers?

For sellers, pricing correctly from the beginning continues to be extremely important.

Buyers have choices, and homes that are priced above what the market supports can sit longer and ultimately require price reductions. Homes that are well positioned, appropriately priced and presented well are having a much better opportunity to attract serious buyers.

The encouraging news is that inventory is gradually declining and more buyers appear to be entering the market.

What Does This Mean for Buyers?

For buyers, the current market continues to offer opportunities that weren't available during the frenzy of a few years ago.

There is generally more time to make decisions, more inventory to consider and greater opportunity to negotiate on price, repairs, closing costs or other terms.

At the same time, declining inventory and the recent increase in homes going under contract are worth watching. If buyer activity continues to strengthen, some of today's negotiating advantages could begin to narrow.

What I'm Watching This Fall

Prices are likely to remain somewhat soft through September and into October. The more encouraging signal right now is the increase in pending and under-contract homes.

If that trend continues, we could begin seeing closed sales stabilize later this fall, particularly as the Valley moves toward its traditionally more active winter and spring selling season.

For now, I would describe the Greater Phoenix market as balanced but highly dependent on location and price point. Buyers have opportunities, sellers can absolutely still sell successfully, but neither side can rely on the market to do the work for them.

Understanding what's happening in your specific neighborhood and price range is much more valuable than looking at Valley-wide numbers alone.

Phoenix Real Estate: It All Comes Down to Location

The Greater Phoenix housing market continues to be a mix of conditions depending on where you live and the price range you're looking at.

Overall, the market changed very little over the past month, although conditions have softened slightly for sellers. The strongest markets continue to be concentrated in some of the Valley's higher-end areas. Paradise Valley and Fountain Hills showed notable improvement, while Scottsdale also continues to perform well.

Outside of the luxury market, buyers generally have more negotiating power. Much of the West Valley, Phoenix and Pinal County currently favor buyers, although there are exceptions. Avondale and Goodyear, for example, have recently shown some improvement for sellers.

The Southeast Valley has also improved slightly overall, while Tempe recently shifted into buyer's market territory.

As we head further into September, we typically begin to see more luxury homes come on the market as we approach Arizona's busier fall and winter season. Additional inventory could help bring some of the stronger luxury markets into better balance.

Across the Valley today, 8 cities are considered seller's markets, 3 are balanced and 7 favor buyers.

What does this mean for you?

If you're buying: There are areas of the Valley where you have more choices and greater negotiating power than we've seen in recent years. Depending on the property, there may be opportunities to negotiate price, closing costs, repairs or other terms.

If you're selling: Buyers are still purchasing homes, but pricing and presentation matter. In areas with more competition, sellers need to be realistic about current market conditions rather than relying on what homes may have sold for a year or two ago.

The big picture: There really isn't one "Phoenix housing market" right now. Conditions can look very different from one city—or even one neighborhood and price range—to another. That's why understanding the market surrounding a specific home is more important than relying on Valley-wide headlines.

Cromford Market Index™ (CMI) is a value that provides a short term forecast for the balance of the market. It is derived from the trends in pending, active and sold listings compared with historical data over the previous four years. Values below 100 indicate a buyer's market, while values above 100 indicate a seller's market. A value of 100 indicates a balanced market.

Rates Hold Steady as Inflation Keeps the Fed Cautious

Last week was one of those weeks where a lot happened in the headlines but rates barely budged — which, believe it or not, is its own kind of story. Let's unpack what the market chewed on this week and, more importantly, what it means for you if you're buying, selling, or refinancing.

What moved rates this week

The big event was Friday-eve inflation data. The Fed's favorite inflation gauge — core PCE — came in at 3.3% year over year for July, holding right where it's been for four months running (April, May, June, and now July all clustered around 3.3–3.4%). Headline PCE sat at 3.7%. In plain English: inflation isn't getting worse, but it's also not really getting better. It's stuck in a holding pattern, and "stuck" is exactly what keeps the Fed cautious and keeps mortgage rates from falling the way a lot of us would like.

A few other things tugged at the market this week:

• Treasury drama. The 30-year Treasury bond briefly touched a 19-year high yield earlier in the week before settling back. The Treasury Department also announced it'll ramp up buybacks of longer-dated bonds starting in September, which briefly nudged yields lower before they bounced back up to finish the week higher. The 10-year Treasury, the number mortgage rates actually track, ended around 4.73%, a touch higher than where it started the week.

• Oil kept climbing. Brent crude pushed above $94 a barrel on continued Middle East tension. Higher energy prices feed straight into inflation worries, which is a headwind for lower rates.

• Jackson Hole. The Fed's annual symposium in Wyoming gave Chair Kevin Warsh the spotlight, and markets combed every word for hints about the September 15–16 meeting. Net-net: a pause is still the market's base case.

• Tariff headlines. A fresh round of proposed tariffs on Canadian autos, parts, and steel added to the "will this reignite inflation?" conversation.

Put it all together and you get a market that leaned slightly higher on the week but stayed remarkably calm. No fireworks — just a slow drift.

Where rates stand right now

Here's the latest from Freddie Mac's weekly survey (released August 27):

- 30-year fixed: 6.66% — up a single basis point from 6.65% last week

- 15-year fixed: 5.98% — up from 5.95%

- 10-year Treasury: ~4.73% — modestly higher on the week

For a little context, the 30-year averaged 6.56% a year ago, so we're within a whisker of where we were last summer. Rates have spent August in an unusually tight band — 6.65% to 6.69% — which is about as boring (in the best way) as this market gets.

These figures are national averages and illustrative only. They assume strong credit and 20% down, and real quotes move every single day — sometimes more than once a day. Your actual rate depends on your credit, down payment, loan type, property, and the market at the moment you lock. All loans subject to approval.

What it means for you

If you're buying: Don't let a headline number freeze you. A 30-year fixed near 6.7% is still very much a workable rate. A smart structure — a rate buydown, seller credits, or the right loan program — can matter more to your monthly payment than a small move in the market average. And remember: if rates ease later, refinancing is always on the table.

If you're on the fence: This is the week to get ready, not necessarily to rush. With the Fed meeting later this month, we could see more day-to-day swings in either direction. Being fully pre-approved means you can move the moment the right home — or the right dip in rates — shows up. Let's get your file buttoned up so you're not scrambling.

If you're thinking about refinancing: Rates at a 13-month high isn't refi weather for most folks with a low fixed rate — hang tight. But refinancing isn't only about rate. If you're carrying high-interest credit cards or want to tap equity for a remodel, a cash-out refi or a HELOC can still make real sense, especially with home values where they are. Worth a quick look at your numbers.

Bottom line

This week was a reminder that mortgage rates dance to the tune of inflation, jobs, and the Fed — and this week all three played a higher note. Rates at a 13-month high sounds dramatic, but the range we're in is steady, and the real advantage goes to the person who's prepared, pre-approved, and has a plan built around their numbers, not the headlines.

Market in a Minute

Housing:

Luxury Leads the Way: Paradise Valley and Fountain Hills continue to show the strongest seller momentum, with Scottsdale also remaining resilient.
Buyers Gain Leverage: Phoenix, Peoria, Glendale and Maricopa are trending more in buyers’ favor, highlighting how much conditions vary by location.
A Mixed Valley: 8 cities are currently seller’s markets, 3 are balanced and 7 favor buyers—with Tempe recently shifting into buyer territory.

Economy:

Inflation Remains Sticky: Core PCE held at 3.3%, keeping pressure on the Fed to remain cautious about future rate cuts.
Mortgage Rates Stay Steady: The average 30-year fixed rate hovered around 6.66%, continuing the relatively narrow range we’ve seen throughout August.
Markets Eye the Fed: Treasury yields, higher oil prices and tariff concerns are keeping inflation in focus as markets look toward the September Fed meeting for clues about what comes next.