Monday Morning Real Estate Mojo

Sep 27

5 min read

September 28, 2026

Edition #208

Mojo defined

1. A term used for self-confidence, self-assuredness.

2. The basis for belief in ones self in a situation.

3. Efficacy to bolster confidence.

4. Ability to bounce back.

There has been so much misinformation about the real estate market in the national media lately...our goal is always to provide our clients with accurate, real time market data.

Mortgage Rates Rise at an Unusual Pace

Mortgage interest rates have risen more than 50 basis points in the last 16 days, with the 30-year fixed rate up from 6.89% to 7.45%, according to Mortgage News Daily. Although this isn’t the fastest jump we’ve ever seen, it’s unusually quick. Such a sudden jump happened only three times between 2010 and 2019, but the last time we saw a sharp increase was quite recently, in March 2026.

Both the March rise and the most recent one come from the same underlying cause: the Iran war pushing up oil prices and inflation expectations. The difference is what came next. In March, the Fed held rates steady, and rates eased on ceasefire talk. This month, the inflation fears have turned into actual Fed rate hikes, with more expected. The trend is still upwards, though forecasting interest rates is notoriously difficult and those who try almost always fail.

What effect will this have on the housing market? We can already see some of the answer. Prashant Gopal of Bloomberg News, who has covered real estate for 17 years and has frequently interviewed the Cromford Report, puts it succinctly: “If you’re a seller, you may feel a little extra pressure to cut your price because you realize that the number of buyers has shrunk. If you’re a buyer, it makes you wonder: Am I stretching too far?” Neither effect is good for agents or transaction volumes.

Active listing counts are increasing, price cuts are accelerating, while contracts are being signed more slowly and fall-throughs are becoming more common. The Cromford® Market Index is now dropping well below 80 and shows sellers are losing negotiating power.

Phoenix Market Shifts Further Toward Buyers as Seller Advantage Weakens

The average Cromford Market Index (CMI)* is down 7.8% from last month. This is much less favorable for sellers than last week’s 4.6% decline, and it is the weakest reading since December 2023. The trend has deteriorated every week since mid-August. The damage is concentrated at the top of the table, where Paradise Valley is down 22%, Fountain Hills is down 20%, and Scottsdale has moved past Fountain Hills into second place on the strength of a 3% gain.

This weakening is not surprising, given that mortgage interest rates have risen sharply over the last month, especially in the last week. Demand has reacted in the opposite direction.

The extra September supply we expected at the high end has now arrived. Paradise Valley has 11% more supply than a month ago and Fountain Hills 10% more, while their demand has fallen 13% and 12%. Both sides of the equation are moving against sellers there. Across the table, demand is weaker than a month ago in 15 of the 18 cities, but unlike last week, supply is rising as well, with Tempe up 9%, Maricopa up 6% and Surprise up 4%.

Only 3 cities are moving in a seller-favorable direction, the same number as last week, but not the same three. Avondale (4%) and Scottsdale (3%) are joined by Buckeye, whose tiny gain rounds to zero in the table, while Cave Creek has dropped out. The other 15 are moving in a buyer-favorable direction, with Paradise Valley (-22%), Fountain Hills (-20%), Tempe (-19%), Maricopa (-15%), and Surprise (-13%) moving the furthest.

We now have 5 cities in a seller’s market, 5 balanced, and 8 in a buyer’s market. Mesa and Phoenix have both dropped out of the seller’s market group. Avondale has moved up to 7th and Mesa down to 8th, while at the bottom of the table, Buckeye and Queen Creek are tied at 51.1.

*Cromford Market Index™ (CMI) is a value that provides a short term forecast for the balance of the market. It is derived from the trends in pending, active and sold listings compared with historical data over the previous four years. Values below 100 indicate a buyer's market, while values above 100 indicate a seller's market. A value of 100 indicates a balanced market.

Smaller Valley Cities Hold Steady for Sellers as Major Markets Weaken

Over the last month, the secondary cities have done far better for sellers than the major cities. Their average Cromford Market Index (CMI)* is up 0.5% while the large cities fell 7.8%, and green up arrows outnumber the red down arrows by 7 to 5. These smaller cities’ CMI values move much more than the large cities we monitor every day and report on weekly. The volatility is the same as in any statistical set with a small sample size. Fewer contracts, sales, and listings mean each individual event has a larger impact.

We see large improvements in Sun City West, Arizona City, and Tolleson in favor of sellers over the last 4 weeks, while El Mirage has moved sharply in favor of buyers, with Litchfield Park not far behind. El Mirage has fallen from second place to sixth in a single month. Most other changes are relatively small.

Active listings are rebuilding now that the summer heat is behind us, as we predicted last month. They are higher than 4 weeks ago in 11 of the 12 cities, with Sun Lakes up 35%, El Mirage up 26%, and Gold Canyon up 24%. Even so, demand is driving most of the change in the table. El Mirage combines the largest supply increase with a 12% fall in demand, and Litchfield Park’s demand is down 13%, while Tolleson and Sun City West have both seen demand improve by around 10%.

We have 6 cities in seller’s markets with a CMI over 110, and 5 in buyer’s markets with a CMI under 90. Sun City is again the only one in a balanced market between 90 and 110. Arizona City and Casa Grande remain at the bottom of the table, although Arizona City has improved by 13% over the month.

*Cromford Market Index™ (CMI) is a value that provides a short term forecast for the balance of the market. It is derived from the trends in pending, active and sold listings compared with historical data over the previous four years. Values below 100 indicate a buyer's market, while values above 100 indicate a seller's market. A value of 100 indicates a balanced market.

Market in a Minute

Housing Market

The market is shifting toward buyers. The average Cromford Market Index for 18 major Valley cities fell 7.8% over the past month, its weakest reading since December 2023.
Luxury markets saw some of the biggest changes. Paradise Valley’s index fell 22% and Fountain Hills’ fell 20% as supply rose and demand declined.
Smaller cities tell a different story. Their average index edged up 0.5%, though results vary widely by city. Sun City West improved for sellers, while El Mirage shifted toward buyers.

Economy & Rates

The job market remains steady. The unemployment rate held at 4.1% in August, offering some support for consumer spending and housing demand.
The Fed raised its benchmark rate by a quarter point in September, bringing its target range to 3.75%–4.00%.
Inflation is in focus this week. The August PCE inflation report comes out Wednesday, September 30, offering another clue about where borrowing costs could head.